British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak faced a significant setback on Friday as voters delivered a harsh blow to his party in two parliamentary elections, normally considered strongholds for the Conservatives.
The resurgent Labour Party secured victories in two constituencies — Selby and Ainsty in the north of England, where the Conservative party had held a commanding majority, and Somerton and Frome, where the Liberal Democrats emerged as the winners.
Although the Conservatives managed to hold on to a third seat in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, which was previously held by former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Labour’s share of the vote substantially increased.
The overall outcome of these by-elections indicates a potential electoral defeat for Sunak’s government in the upcoming general election, expected to take place next year.
Sunak, however, tried to put up a brave front, highlighting the Conservative victory in Uxbridge as a sign that the next general election is not a foregone conclusion. He emphasized this point while speaking at a cafe in Johnson’s former constituency.
These mid-term by-elections proved to be a tough test for Sunak, who assumed power after Liz Truss’s short-lived premiership last fall. During his nine months in office, Sunak struggled to revive the Conservative party’s declining popularity due to various scandals, economic challenges, and a deterioration in public services.
The Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat was highly contested after Boris Johnson’s resignation following the “Partygate” scandal, which severely impacted his popularity and contributed to his political downfall. Despite Labour’s efforts to claim the seat, the Conservative candidate, Steve Tuckwell, managed to secure victory by addressing a local issue involving a proposed expansion of a low-emissions zone.
However, the Conservatives’ real cause for concern lies in the loss of Selby, a northern region in England, where Labour managed to overturn a significant deficit and secure victory with 46% of the votes. These regions are critical targets for Labour if they aim to achieve a parliamentary majority in the next general election.
Adding to the Conservative party’s worries was a resounding defeat in Somerton and Frome, a prosperous area in southwest England, where the Liberal Democrats captured nearly 55% of the votes. The centrist party has been gaining former Conservative supporters in the so-called “Blue Wall,” an affluent part of southern England known for opposing Brexit. The swing against the Conservatives in all three seats indicates a potential resurgence of the Labour party on a national level.
According to the law, a general election must be held by January 2025. Most observers believe that Sunak will likely call for an election in the fall of 2024, if not earlier, to avoid the challenges of campaigning during the winter. Time is running out for him to reverse the Conservatives’ fortunes, as issues like the cost of living crisis, strained public services, high inflation, and a string of Tory scandals have contributed to declining public opinion towards his party, which has held power for the past 13 years. This has also strengthened calls from opposition parties for an early general election.