Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is facing a critical test as he vies for victory in three distinct parliamentary seats on Thursday. The potential loss in all three contests would mark the worst one-day mid-term result for any British governing party in over fifty years.
These elections represent one of the last opportunities to gauge public support before the anticipated national election next year. Additionally, they offer a chance to assess whether the opposition Labour Party can convert their impressive double-digit poll leads into actual victories. Sunak, a former finance minister and investment banker, has sought to portray himself as a competent technocrat capable of addressing complex policy challenges. However, he continues to grapple with his party’s tumultuous past.
The seats up for grabs are vacated by former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who resigned as an MP after being found to have misled parliament over parties during the pandemic, and a supportive ally who also resigned. A third election is being held due to a member of parliament stepping down amid allegations of sexual harassment and drug use.
The results of these by-elections, which are anticipated to be declared in the early hours of Friday, could be indicative of the Conservative party’s prospects in the forthcoming general election. Rising frustration among the public over persistently high inflation, increasing taxes, and economic stagnation may be reflected in these votes. The last time a governing party lost three by-elections in a single day was back in 1968.
Recent polling shows a decline in Sunak’s popularity since he assumed office in October, with about two-thirds of voters currently holding an unfavorable view of him, as per a YouGov poll published on Wednesday. Betting odds also indicate the Conservatives may lose all three elections, despite securing significant majorities in two of these constituencies in 2019.
The electoral battles take place in Selby and Ainsty in northern England, where the Conservatives won with a substantial majority of 20,137 in the last general election. Labour is hopeful of a significant upset in this seat, which could mark their most substantial victory at a by-election since World War Two. In Somerton and Frome in southwest England, the opposition Liberal Democrats are aiming to overturn a Conservative majority of 19,213. Meanwhile, in Uxbridge and South Ruislip in the western fringes of London, Labour seeks to overturn a Conservative majority of 7,210, which was previously held by Boris Johnson.
Though a spokesperson for Sunak acknowledged that historically, by-elections have been challenging for governments, they emphasized that the primary focus remains on the general election.
(Reporting by Andrew MacAskill; Editing by Elizabeth Piper and Alex Richardson)